Russian aftermarket specifics. Can we expect a recovery?

Russian aftermarket specifics. Can we expect a recovery?

Announcement Image발표 날짜 : Apr 23 , 2020카테고리: 2020, News

Nous sommes tous en mode crise, mais quand cela frappe (comme en ce moment), les professionnels sont prêts à prendre les décisions sur la base d’une analyse solide. GiPA a agi rapidement pour mesurer les conséquences immédiates et a réalisé une étude sur l’impact du COVID-19 sur le marché secondaire russe, en suivant le taux d’activité des ateliers toutes les deux semaines.

Donc, si vous voulez en savoir plus à ce sujet, veuillez continuer à lire.

 

Un aperçu de la crise

Bien sûr, il est évident que les limitations et restrictions du COVID-19 perturberont globalement l’activité, et de nombreux professionnels souffrent déjà en raison de:

  • L’auto-solation des clients potentiels.
  • La nécessité de réduire les dépenses.
  • La réduction du personnel.

This, ultimately, lead to the review of the plans and, of course, of the overall strategies.

So, observing in detail the Russian aftermarket, we can see:

  • A 44% post-factum inactivity of the market due to the restrictions.
  • A loss of around 3 out of 4 robles at the beginning of March, during only 1 week.

Leaving us with a strong hope: that the disease will not spread faster, and an almost unique activity: to keep on tracking the key market activity indicators.

For any further information, please click here to contact GiPA

 

But there are also positive signs?

 Here we would also like to observe if there are any positive signs for recovery in the aftersales market, so we can track them professionally to analyze the consequences of the crisis.

Firstly, we have to remember that the market volume depends on the car parc and the number and types of operations performed, leaving us the number of cars on the road as the first key indicator to understand the next period’s aftersales volumes.

Talking specifically of the Russian aftermarket, we will also need to know and understand the following facts:

  • The new cars´ volume sold for the 3-year’s rolling cycle at the result of 2019-2016 is just slightly less than 5 mln vehicles, which is quite close to the first recovery years of 2016-2014 period.
  • Car sales in March 2020 were over 30% higher compared to March 2019 due to the inflation expectations.

 

Which lead us to think that:

  • The car parc in Russia will be stable for the next 3-year period (considering that the declared isolation period will last for around 2 months in a row).
  • The new car sales will not definitely grow but it will be compensated by the reduction of the accidents rate.

Only 1 out of 3 drivers are still using the car as usual according to the latest COVID survey results.

 

And the aging of the car parc?

Secondly, we also need to understand and keep track of the cars´ age. Will it become less after the end of the crisis? Well, to know this, let´s check the following Russian aftermarket data:

  • In the last years, the income growth has been lower than the inflation rate; in 2018 and 2019 the difference was more than 1% in favor of the inflation, not helping to spend more on car operations.
  • The parc is aging faster than many other European countries, because the focus is being switched to the cars with the average age over 9 years closer to 10.

Everything points that this ageing will be even more drastic as many drivers will feel less safe and protected than before. They will consume less and will have to pay their accumulated debts at the period of COVID isolation.

 

And the positive signs?

We can also find the indicators that bring positive signs for the potential of recovery for the local market.

So, in terms of the new car sales and the market capacity, of course, it is worth mentioning that:

  • The number of the new driving licenses in Russia is growing. In 2019, young millennials were motivated to begin driving, which helped increase the number of licensed drivers.
  • Russians prefer to travel by car. Even the modern and well-developed mobility ways are not pushing the Russian drivers from the intention of choosing their own cars or using corporate ones versus the public transportation, including the railways.
  • COVID-19 threat only added to the feeling of personal safety and reliability of the personal car. Actually, the vast majority of the respondents (the figure exceeds 95%) refuse to use any other means of transportation, and this habit will most likely remain during the post-isolation period, helping the aftersales market to recover by consuming more mileage in the future.
  • We are seeing an extremely fast reaction speed and optimistic expectations from the professionals. Our recent research demonstrates that currently, the vast majority of the dealers and the independent garages have a clear intention to open as soon as possible. 90% of parts and accessories stores are ready to open doors to the customers immediately as well.
  • Taking into account the share of do-it-yourself and buy-and-fit operations that is over 30% for a long period of time, we locally used to buy the parts at the stores, both online and offline, and the crisis period will make this position even stronger, forming the new habits of the drivers.

So, the share of the operations done by own means and the share of independent chains in sales will demonstrate the next key indicator of driver’s aftersales behavior and the market capacity as well.

Pour plus d’informations,  veuillez cliquer ici pour contacter GiPA

 

Conclusion de la reprise du marché secondaire russe

C’est un devoir – étant donné les données clés mentionnées ci-dessus – que nous continuions de suivre la situation sur le marché automobile de manière précise et de continuer à nous mettre à jour régulièrement.

Nos clients recevront le rapport étendu et l’analyse de notre côté du monde, ce qui nous permettra de réfléchir aux tendances et aux attentes des résultats 2020.

Pour terminer, nous vous laissons un autre fait positif: la majorité des personnes interrogées au cours de la dernière semaine, ne sont pas certaines du temps de maintenance mais sont prêtes à prendre rendez-vous dès la fin de la période d’isolement.

Excellente nouvelle, nous n’avons donc qu’à attendre! Soyez bien et restez en sécurité!

Pour plus d’informations,  veuillez cliquer ici pour contacter GiPA